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Bravus

Novel Coronavirus

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We're still in the exponential stage of the growth of this new epidemic: as of right now, about 24,000 cases and 500 fatalities, but growing rapidly.

The mortality rate is estimated at about 2%, and mostly the already frail, and it may move around a bit, but the speed of growth and of spread around the world is very worrying.

Ubiquitous travel means pandemics will seldom be localised any more, though thankfully ebola has been pretty much contained to date.

Don't think there's a vaccine yet, and quarantine seems to have been slowing the rate of growth somewhat but not stopping it.

I don't really have a question or a solution... 

I initially thought the Australian government had panicked and over-reacted by stopping people from China coming into the country, and certainly it will have a huge impact on the start of the university year, with a quarter million Chinese students set to start or return, but time will tell: it might end up being important.

Pandemics are something humanity regularly experiences, and Yuval Noah Harari in his recent book 'Homo Deus' claimed we have mostly conquered them... but this is a test.

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Looking at the stats. There did initially seem to be a tapering off of the rate of infections, but then a different set of stats came out and they started growing again. I've been using this site for graphs and stats:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

The death stats also seem to have at least gone from exponential to linear, but the slope doesn't seem to be falling.
People saying 'more people' (in raw numbers) die from the seasonal flu is a misdirection, since that's a raw number and not a rate. The *proportion* of fatalities to infections for the seasonal flu is far lower. 

Saying 'well, the fatality rate is only 2%' is also odd: if a billion people are infected that's 20 million dead. Of the cases that have had an outcome, 11% have been fatalities, but that's obviously an untidy stat.

 

And a vaccine is potentially 18 months away.

It's a little chilling for me, because I've been talking to my students (beginning science teachers) for years about the fact that there's a pandemic in most centuries and we're about due... Not at all something I hoped for, or wanted to be vindicated on. Hoped I was wrong, still hope I'm wrong.

 

Edited by Bravus

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Two weird things I've seen pop up recently are that some people may possibly have shown symptoms outside the 14 day window (like 21 days until they showed infection) and something weird about reinfection being a stronger/deadlier possibility than normal. Not really sure if either of those is 100% confirmed or just people panicking and throwing logic out the window but both something to track… 🤔

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Labgrown = weapon...

"It sure sounds as if China is conceding there may be a problem keeping dangerous pathogens in test tubes, doesn’t it? And just how many “microbiology labs” are there in China that handle “advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus”?"

Edited by Boogerhead

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I dunno - the delightfully named Stephen Mosher basically sets up his identity tent around being anti-China, so I'd like a perspective from someone a bit more objective before accepting the notion that this was made in a lab.

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It's in my region, now: a beautician came back from Iran and worked in a local shopping centre before being diagnosed. Guess the hope we could keep it out of fortress Australia was a bit futile.

 

The first round of the MotoGP season, in Qatar, has been called off because so many of the riders and teams are from Italy.

 

Kind of moot in a way whether or not we call it 'pandemic' at this stage, but it definitely appears to be out of control with new outbreaks popping up in new countries daily.

 

It's less lethal than SARS but about 10-20 times more lethal than the seasonal flu, so when you see people say 'the seasonal flu kills more', take that with a grain of salt: thousands of times more people contract the seasonal flu. 

 

If this ends up being as endemic as the seasonal flu, we can expect a *lot* of deaths. Most will be the old or infirm... and so good hygeine and abiding by quarantine is like vaccination - don't do it for yourself, do it for the vulnerable.

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19 hours ago, Bravus said:

I dunno - the delightfully named Stephen Mosher basically sets up his identity tent around being anti-China, so I'd like a perspective from someone a bit more objective before accepting the notion that this was made in a lab.

 

I didn't think he was saying they created it, rather than they were studying it and lost control.

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So, yeah... Life in the hotbed....

People are straight up panicking.

Hysterical.

All stores in the region are sold out of disinfectant.

On the plus side, traffic has been non-existent. Ever since Amazon told their employees to telecommute, we real Seattleites have had our streets back. Those techtards really ought to pay more for the idiocy they've introduced to our commute.

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There's a couple hundred infections in Belgium now, but people are keeping pretty cool. You can't find hand sanitizer anywhere, but other than that people don't seem too bothered. I haven't really seen evidence of panic-buying or anything like that. Tourism in Brugge seems to not have suffered either. I did have a big work meeting in Berlin cancelled, but that was expected.

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Things the stores are running out of here in Seattle:

Toilet paper, paper towels

rubbing alcohol,

disinfectant of any kind,

bleach wipes,

bleach,

kleenex,

water,

frozen foods.
sanity.

 

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My company's Barcelona office started a work from home policy, yesterday.

 

The Miami and Fareham offices will follow suit starting Monday.

 

Basically they've been monitoring the school districts and closing offices when the local schools close.

 

I expect office openings will follow the same pattern.

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If this isn't over in about two months, we will need to find TP somewhere, but my shopping habits (and living here in the US with a big-ass garage and a second fridge) mean that I didn't have to do too much to prepare, although my pantry generally speaking was at a low ebb until yesterday. We won't be eating anything too fancy, but we'll be OK for a while.

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I should probably shop at some point… o_O

 

Honestly though I've heard 50 to 150 million Americans are gonna get it, but 80% of the cases will be mild. 🤔

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That could mean over 1M deaths, of course, which sounds wild 😮

 

Working from home for the extent of the crisis 😮

 

Family is in Everett. They're doing okay, for now :(

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Myself, I'm in Phoenix, and also my housemates already have two cats and a dog (so it'd be difficult to adopt a new critter). :(

 

If/when I get a place where I can have pets, I'll just let any of my online or meatspace friends know, if you need a human to adopt if you leave pets behind, I am happy to take them in ❤️

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